Does the Market Read Too Much into the USDA’s March 1 and June 1 Corn Stocks Estimates?

The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks reports provide important fundamental information to the corn market. Those reports reflect surveys of a large sample of corn producers and almost all commercial storage facilities in order to estimate the amount of corn in store at the end of each quarter of the marketing year (December 1, March 1, June 1, and September 1). The stocks estimate reveals the pace of corn consumption during the previous quarter and the magnitude of supplies available for consumption during the rest of the year, or in the case of the September 1 estimate, the magnitude of stocks carried forward to the new marketing year. The most important information revealed in the reports is the implied rate of domestic feed and residual use of corn during the previous quarter.

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