How Should We Use Within-Season Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?

In the farmdoc daily article of May 24, 2017 we examined the relationship between corn and soybean crop condition ratings at various times in the growing season and the U.S. average yield in order to determine when during the season we should pay serious attention to the ratings to form yield expectations. The analysis in that article indicated that: (1) there has been a strong correlation between trend-adjusted U.S. corn and soybean yields since 1986 and the percentage of the crops rated in good or excellent condition at the end of the season; and (2) the correlations between crop conditions and yields are low early in the season and then rise sharply for corn into mid-July and rise more gradually for soybeans into mid-August. Here, we extend that analysis by identifying adjustments that could be made to ratings during the growing season in order to make them more useful in forming expectations about final condition ratings and yield expectations.

Read the entire article here.

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