News

Implied Probabilities for Corn and Soybeans Prices for 2016


RMA establishes Projected Prices (PP) each year at the end of February for crop insurance contracts that serve as minimum indemnification prices for crop insurance contracts. For revenue insurance contracts not specifically designated with Harvest Price Exclusion (HPE), the PP can be supplanted by a Harvest Price if prices during the month of October average higher levels than the PP. During the time between the determination of the Projected Price and the final Harvest Price, market prices move in response to changes in growing conditions, expected usage, and remaining future supply and demand risks. It is important to understand the evolving probabilities of future price levels to effectively manage revenue risk. The purpose of this post is to introduce a new tool available at the farmdoc crop insurance evaluation site that helps to understand the market’s implied price distribution at any point in time and the implication for possible levels of crop revenue.

Read the entire article here.

ProAg Quick Links

Agent Toolbox Grower Toolbox Careers

ProAg News

USDA Reports Review

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) for July was met with much skepticism based on the corn numbers. With production 195 million bushels (mb) higher than in June and nearly 375 mb above the average trade estimate, the corn market sloughed off early weakness and closed sharply higher....

Helping wheat, corn producers target fertilizer needs

A few years ago, Agricultural Research Service (ARS) scientists in Akron, Colorado began noticing a pattern to their wheat harvests: yields were higher in low-lying areas. But it was the extreme variability in yields that surprised the researchers. ...

Grants help rural businesses lower energy costs

Acting Assistant to the Secretary for Rural Development Joel Baxley today encouraged farmers, rural small businesses and agricultural producers to apply for financing in a key U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) program that provides loan guarantees to help rural small businesses lower their energy costs....
Get ProAg updates via email
Your browser is out-of-date!

Update your browser to view this website correctly. Update my browser now

×