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Short Range and July Weather Outlook


Corn planting in the U.S. is essentially complete, with 94% of the crop already emerging. Although the season got off to a rather sluggish start, thanks to unfavorable weather during much of April, conditions were much more favorable throughout May, allowing farmers to end planting slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace. Emergence is also slightly ahead of the 5-year average pace (92%) thus far. Corn rated in good/excellent condition as of June 10th was reported to be down one point from the previous week to 77% while only 4% of the crop is currently rated as being in poor/very poor condition. Although there was a small week-over-week decline, condition is still better than last year. At the same time last year, only 67% of the crop was in good/excellent condition, while 8% was poor/very poor.

Temperatures across much of the Corn Belt over the next several days are forecast to trend well above normal, with widespread areas trending 5-15F above normal. By early next week, however, these much warmer trends will begin to spread to the Northeast and East Coast, with near to slightly cooler than normal trends moving into the western Corn Belt. Through mid-week, these cooler trends will spread across the Central Plains and Corn Belt, providing some relief from the much warmer days. Areas from Kansas to Ohio are expected to continue to experience slightly below normal trends until about Thursday. Warmer trends will once again start to push into the Northern Plains by mid-week, and spread into the Central and Southern Plains by the end of the week and into the weekend. Over the next 7 days, some light showers can be expected across the Corn Belt, but for the most part the heart of the CB is expected to trend on the dry side. The Northern Plains, especially Minnesota and Wisconsin, as well as parts of the drought-riddled Southern Plains are expected to receive several inches of rainfall.

Taking a high-level look ahead to July, temperatures for the month are projected to trend slightly warmer than normal across the Northern Plains and into parts of the Eastern Corn Belt. Overall monthly temperatures in the East and South Central are expected to average to right around normal. When compared to last year, monthly temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer around the Great Lakes but similar to slightly cooler across much of the Corn Belt. Monthly precipitation across the growing region is expected to be below normal for the month, but slightly above normal in the East. While the month is expected to be a bit drier than normal, it is forecast to be wetter than last year from North Dakota into western and central Iowa and into parts of Missouri and Kansas. More eastern Corn Belt states, such as Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio could trend drier than last year for the month as a whole.

Down in Brazil, the country’s crop agency, Conab, has lowered their expectation for safrinha corn production. The drop of 4.7 million tons from last month’s outlook to 58.2 million tons, was not unexpected since dry weather impacted several states in southern Brazil during critical phases of corn development. While this season was already projected to have a smaller output than last year’s record-breaking production, if realized, this would represent a 13.5% decline from last season. Yields are expected to average somewhere around 77 bushels/acre for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop but will vary across the country.

Source: Morning Ag Clips

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