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The Never-ending Retaliatory Tariff Exchange


A new day, a new retaliatory list. On Friday, the U.S. released a list of products from China that would be subject to an additional 25 percent tariff as a result of the 301-probe related to intellectual property theft. China wasted no time releasing a list of products from the U.S. that would also be subject to an additional 25 percent tariff in retaliation for the U.S. action. The retaliatory list released by China on Friday is version 2 of their 301 retaliation. Version 1, released in April, included 33 agricultural products. Version 2 includes all the original 33 ag products and adds 261 additional ag products. We explore the potential impact.

Version 1 of China’s 301 retaliation list caught a lot of attention when it was released due to the significant U.S. export value of the 33 products, which included soybeans, beef, cotton, corn, ethanol, dried distillers’ grains, grain sorghum, wheat, cranberries, orange juice, tobacco and whiskey, among others. According to Chinese import values, the Chinese imported $17.3 billion worth of these products each year from the United States over the 2015-2017 period.

The second version of 301 retaliation list, which includes 294 agricultural tariff lines, includes all of the initial 33 products, plus pork, poultry, rice, dairy products and a wide variety of fruits, vegetables and tree nuts. The average Chinese import value of these products from the United States over the 2015-2017 period was $19.9 billion each year. According to the same data, the average value of all Chinese imports of U.S. agricultural products (utilizing a World Trade Organization definition of agricultural goods) over the 2015-2017 period was nearly $22.9 billion, which means the new list covers nearly 90 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports to China.

It should also be noted that many of the products on the revised 301 retaliation list are also on China’s 232 retaliation list. As readers will recall, China’s 232 retaliation applies an additional 25 percent tariff on U.S. pork and coconut products and an additional 15 percent tariff on 86 products, including a wide variety of fruits, vegetables and nuts. It remains to be seen whether a product that is on both the 232 and the 301 tariff list will be subject to the combined tariff from both lists or simply the higher of the two. For example, in-shell almonds (HS 08021100) are on both lists. By virtue of being on the 232 list, U.S. almonds imported into China are subject to a 15 percent tariff (in addition to the standard 24 percent tariff). As of Friday, in-shell almonds are also on the 301 tariff list, which would make U.S. almonds subject to an additional 25 percent tariff (again in addition to the standard 24 percent tariff). So, will U.S. in-shell almonds imported into China after July 6 be subject to an additional tariff that is the higher of the two tariffs (25 percent) or the combined tariff that would result from being on both lists (40 percent)? Or would it be additive? Would the 15 percent tariff be applied and then the 25 percent tariff be applied to that value? Additional clarity from Chinese officials will be necessary to answer this question.

Figure 1.
HS Code Description 2015-2017 Avg Imports from U.S. 2015-2017 Avg Imports from World US Share of China Imports Retaliation List
thousand dollars
02011000 Beef, fresh or chilled – Carcasses and half-carcasses April, June
02012000 Beef, fresh or chilled – Other cuts with bone in 133 5,793 2% April, June
02013000 Beef, fresh or chilled – Boneless 1,553 54,335 3% April, June
02021000 Beef, frozen – Carcasses and half-carcasses 942 0% April, June
02022000 Beef, frozen – Other cuts with bone in 518 276,359 0% April, June
02023000 Beef, frozen – Boneless 6,144 2,296,219 0% April, June
02031110 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Carcasses and half-carcasses 0 June
02031190 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Carcasses and half-carcasses 0 June
02031200 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, with bone in 10 29 36% June
02031900 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Other 41 41 100% June
02032110 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Carcasses and half-carcasses 0 June
02032190 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Carcasses and half-carcasses 1,584 0% June
02032200 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, with bone in 117,717 706,039 17% June
02032900 Pork, fresh chilled or frozen — Other 179,148 1,578,713 11% June
02062900 Frozen beef offal 13 67,541 0% April, June
02063000 Pork offal, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02064100 Pork livers, frozen 0 3,410 0% June
02064900 Pork offal, frozen, other 698,326 1,935,898 36% June
02071100 Chicken — Not cut in pieces, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02071200 Chicken — Not cut in pieces, frozen 0 847 0% June
02071311 Chicken — Cuts and offal, fresh or chilled with bone 1 1 100% June
02071319 Chicken — Cuts and offal, fresh or chilled other 0 0 June
02071321 Chicken — Cuts and offal, fresh or chilled midjoint wing 0 0 June
02071329 Chicken — Cuts and offal, fresh or chilled other 0 0 June
02071411 Chicken — Cuts and offal, frozen with bone 1,291 130,179 1% June
02071419 Chicken — Cuts and offal, frozen other 3 6,066 0% June
02071421 Chicken — Cuts and offal, frozen midjoint wing 136 585,838 0% June
02071422 Chicken — Cuts and offal, frozen chicken claw 5,798 282,020 2% June
02071429 Chicken — Cuts and offal, frozen other 1,344 46,584 3% June
02072400 Turkey — Not cut in pieces, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02072500 Turkey — Not cut in pieces, frozen 1 1,173 0% June
02072600 Turkey — Cuts and offal, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02072700 Turkey — Cuts and offal, frozen 3,762 29,004 13% June
02074100 Ducks — Not cut in pieces, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02074200 Ducks — Not cut in pieces, frozen 0 5 0% June
02074300 Ducks — Fatty livers, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02074400 Ducks — Other, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02074500 Ducks — Other, frozen 0 0 38% June
02075100 Geese — Not cut in pieces, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02075200 Geese — Not cut in pieces, frozen 0 0 June
02075300 Geese — Fatty livers, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02075400 Geese — Other, fresh or chilled 0 0 June
02075500 Geese — Other, frozen 0 0 June
02091000 Pig fat, free of lean meat, and poultry fat, not rendered or otherwise extracted, fresh, chilled, frozen 2,950 70,002 4% June
02101110 Meat and edible meat offal, salted, in brine, dried or smoked; — Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, with bone in 11 0% June
02101190 Meat and edible meat offal, salted, in brine, dried or smoked; — Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, with bone in 0 0 June
02101200 Meat and edible meat offal, salted, in brine, dried or smoked; — Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof 2 2 100% June
02101900 Meat and edible meat offal, salted, in brine, dried or smoked; — Other 4,075 4,075 100% June
04011000 Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter – Of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1 % 67 33,159 0% June
04012000 Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter – Of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 1 % but not exceeding 6 % 756 357,573 0% June
04014000 Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter – Of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 6 % but not exceeding 10 % 0 255 0% June
04015000 Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter – Of a fat content, by weight, exceeding 10 % 105 276,892 0% June
04021000 Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter – In powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1.5% 46,766 504,611 9% June
04022100 Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter — Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter 11,846 1,172,870 1% June
04022900 Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter — Other 1,445 38,132 4% June
04029100 Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter — Not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter 18 25,926 0% June
04029900 Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter — Other 149 9,164 2% June
04031000 Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream, yogurt, kephir and other fermented or acidified milk and cream – Yogurt 168 34,610 0% June
04039000 Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream, yogurt, kephir and other fermented or acidified milk and cream – Other 915 10,992 8% June
04041000 Whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter 215,867 535,019 40% June
04049000 Whey, whether or not concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter; Other 290 13,041 2% June
04051000 Butter 43 258,392 0% June
04052000 Dairy Spreads 1 46 2% June
04059000 Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk; dairy spreads. – Other 159 97,826 0% June
04061000 Fresh (unripened or uncured) cheese, including whey cheese, and curd 2,205 141,498 2% June
04062000 Grated or powdered cheese, of all kinds 20,897 99,430 21% June
04063000 Processed cheese, not grated or powdered 8,928 74,520 12% June
04064000 Blue-veined cheese and other cheese containing veins produced by Penicillium roqueforti 0 667 0% June
04069000 Other cheese 19,511 105,583 18% June
05040021 Guts, bladders and stomachs of animals (other than fish), whole and pieces thereof, fresh, chilled, 155 172 90% June
07011000 Potatoes, fresh or chilled – Seed 2 11 23% June
07019000 Potatoes, fresh or chilled – Other June
07020000 Tomatoes, fresh or chilled 0 0% June
07031010 Onions and shallots 1 1,828 0% June
07031020 Onions and shallots 4 0% June
07032010 Garlic 0 102 0% June
07032020 Garlic 0 0 100% June
07032090 Garlic June
07039010 Leeks and other alliaceous vegetables June
07039020 Leeks and other alliaceous vegetables June
07039090 Leeks and other alliaceous vegetables June
07041000 Cauliflowers and headed broccoli 7 7 98% June
07042000 Brussels sprouts 0 0 100% June
07049010 Cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) June
07049020 Cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. italica) 0 1 13% June
07049090 Other cabbage 0 1 11% June
07051100 Cabbage lettuce (head lettuce) 20 0% June
07051900 Lettuce, other 10 11 99% June
07052100 Witloof chicory (Cichorium intybus var. foliosum) June
07052900 Lettuce, other 0 0 95% June
07061000 Carrots and turnips 171 178 96% June
07069000 Carrots and turnops – Other 2 2 100% June
07070000 Cucumbers and gherkins, fresh or chilled 17 0% June
07081000 Peas (Pisum sativum) 0 0 100% June
07082000 Beans (Vigna spp., Phaseolus spp.) June
07089000 Other leguminous vegetables June
07092000 Asparagus 81 0% June
07093000 Aubergines (egg-plants) 0 0% June
07094000 Celery other than celeriac 9 9 100% June
07095100 Mushrooms of the genus Agaricus 5 0% June
07095910 Sungmo mushrooms 964 0% June
07095920 Shiitake mushrooms June
07095930 Winter mushrooms 12 0% June
07095940 Paddy straw mushrooms June
07095950 Tricoloma mongolicum Imai mushrooms June
07095960 Truffle mushrooms June
07095990 Other mushrooms 1 4 12% June
07096000 Fruits of the genus Capsicum or of the genus Pimenta 1,805 0% June
07097000 Spinach, New Zealand spinach and orache spinach (garden spinach) June
07099100 Globe artichokes 1 0% June
07099200 Olives June
07099300 Pumpkins, squash and gourds (Cucurbita spp.) 1,354 0% June
07099910 Bamboo shoots June
07099990 Other vegetables, fresh or chilled 0 2 20% June
07122000 Dried onions 393 667 59% June
07123100 Dried Mushrooms of the genus Agaricus 61 599 10% June
07123200 Dried Wood ears (Auricularia spp.) 140 0% June
07123300 Dried Jelly fungi (Tremella spp.) 4 0% June
07123910 Dried Shiitake mushrooms 3 291 1% June
07123920 Dried Winter mushrooms 44 0% June
07123950 Dried Boletus, Procini 0 19 0% June
07123991 Dried Morchella 17 0% June
07123999 Dried vegetables, whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder, but not further prepared — Other 1 52 1% June
07129010 Dried Bamboo shoots 625 0% June
07129020 Dried Osmund June
07129030 Dried Day lily flowers June
07129040 Dried Wild brake 107 0% June
07129050 Dried Garlic 1 1,108 0% June
07129091 Dried Horseradish June
07129099 Dried, Other vegetables; mixtures of vegetables 31 4,319 1% June
07131010 Dried, Peas (Pisum sativum) 391 1,873 21% June
07131090 Dried, Peas (Pisum sativum) 27,336 375,503 7% June
07132010 Dried, Chickpeas (garbanzos) 1 0% June
07132090 Dried, Chickpeas (garbanzos) 129 0% June
07133110 Dried, Beans of the species Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper or Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek June
07133190 Dried, Beans of the species Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper or Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek 33,193 0% June
07133210 Dried, Small red (Adzuki) beans (Phaseolus or Vigna angularis) June
07133290 Dried, Small red (Adzuki) beans (Phaseolus or Vigna angularis) 5,779 0% June
07133310 Dried, Kidney beans, including white pea beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) 0 0% June
07133390 Dried, Kidney beans, including white pea beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) 67 5,882 1% June
07133400 Dried, Bambara beans (Vigna subterranea or Voandzeia subterranea) June
07133500 Dried, Cow peas (Vigna unguiculata) 103 0% June
07133900 Dried leguminous vegetables, shelled, whether or not skinned or split; other 675 0% June
07134010 Dried, Lentils 0 1 5% June
07134090 Dried, Lentils 754 1,250 60% June
07135010 Dried, Broad beans (Vicia faba var. major) and horse beans (Vicia faba var. equina, Vicia faba var. minor 1 2 50% June
07135090 Dried, Broad beans (Vicia faba var. major) and horse beans (Vicia faba var. equina, Vicia faba var. minor 0 0% June
07136010 Dried, Pigeon peas (Cajanus cajan) June
07136090 Dried, Pigeon peas (Cajanus cajan) June
07139010 Dried leguminous vegetables, shelled, whether or not skinned or split; other 11 219 5% June
07139090 Dried leguminous vegetables, shelled, whether or not skinned or split; other 7 37,821 0% June
07141010 Manioc (cassava) 8,911 0% June
07141020 Manioc (cassava) 1,628,387 0% June
07142011 Sweet potatoes June
07142019 Sweet potatoes 1 2 69% June
07142020 Sweet potatoes 11 0% June
07143000 Yams (Dioscorea spp.) June
07144000 Taro (Colocasia spp.) 300 0% June
07145000 Yautia (Xanthosoma spp.) June
07149010 Water Chestnut June
07149021 Manioc, arrowroot, salep, Jerusalem artichokes, sweet potatoes and similar roots and tubers; for cultivation June
07149029 Manioc, arrowroot, salep, Jerusalem artichokes, sweet potatoes and similar roots and tubers; other 1 0% June
07149090 Manioc, arrowroot, salep, Jerusalem artichokes, sweet potatoes and similar roots and tubers; other 0 200 0% June
08011100 Coconuts, Desiccated 6 16,467 0% June
08011200 Coconuts, In the inner shell (endocarp) 130,498 0% June
08011910 Coconut seedlings June
08011990 Other Coconut 2 9,372 0% June
08012100 Brazil Nuts — In shell 0 228 0% June
08012200 Brazil Nuts — Shelled 17 0% June
08013100 Cashew Nuts — In shell 9 5,337 0% June
08013200 Cashew Nuts — Shelled 32 35,148 0% June
08021100 Almonds — In shell 18,999 19,113 99% June
08021200 Almonds — Shelled 51,813 53,392 97% June
08022100 Hazelnuts — In shell 1,791 1,842 97% June
08022200 Hazelnuts — Shelled 23,043 0% June
08023100 Walnuts — In shell 13,925 16,375 85% June
08023200 Walnuts — Shelled 17,739 19,264 92% June
08024110 Chestnuts — In shell 15,921 0% June
08024190 Chestnuts — In shell June
08024210 Chestnuts — Shelled 1 0% June
08024290 Chestnuts — Shelled 108 0% June
08025100 Pistachios — In shell 103,432 123,560 84% June
08025200 Pistachios — Shelled 2,025 2,786 73% June
08026110 Macadamia NutsIn Shell, For cultivation June
08026190 Macadamia NutsIn Shell, Other 16,876 69,174 24% June
08026200 Macadamia Nuts — Shelled 137 9,059 2% June
08027000 Kola nuts (Cola spp.) June
08028000 Areca nuts 1,351 0% June
08029020 Ginko Nuts – Other June
08029030 Pine nuts – Other 8 83,493 0% June
08029090 Other nuts, fresh or dried, whether or not shelled or peeled. 22,654 170,187 13% June
08031000 Bananas, including plantains, fresh or dried. – Plantains 1 0% June
08039000 Bananas, including plantains, fresh or dried. – Other 0 645,183 0% June
08041000 Dates 63 3,775 2% June
08042000 Figs 66 3,126 2% June
08043000 Pineapples 117,066 0% June
08044000 Avocados 76,278 0% June
08045010 Guavas, mangoes and mangosteens 1,620 0% June
08045020 Guavas, mangoes and mangosteens 6 18,868 0% June
08045030 Guavas, mangoes and mangosteens 178,058 0% June
08051000 Oranges 66,858 263,115 25% June
08052110 Chiao-Kan Mandarin Oranges June
08052190 Other Mandarin Oranges 33 20,511 0% June
08052200 Clementines 28 0% June
08052900 Other Mandarin Oranges 82 8,514 1% June
08054000 Grapefruit, including pomelos 867 43,356 2% June
08055000 Lemons (Citrus limon, Citrus limonum) and limes (Citrus aurantifolia, Citrus latifolia) 10,557 31,114 34% June
08059000 Citrus fruit, fresh or dried — Other 144 0% June
08061000 Fresh grapes 55,452 601,062 9% June
08062000 Dried grapes 23,313 49,900 47% June
08071100 Watermelons 34,240 0% June
08071910 Hami melons 29 0% June
08071920 Cantelope and Galia melons June
08071990 Other melons 0 0% June
08072000 Papaws (papayas) 1 792 0% June
08081000 Apples 47,940 128,114 37% June
08083010 Ya pears, Hsueh pears 15 0% June
08083020 Xiang pears June
08083090 Other pears 4,872 12,833 38% June
08084000 Quinces June
08091000 Apricots June
08092100 Sour cherries (Prunus cerasus) 0 0% June
08092900 Other cherries 123,829 745,145 17% June
08093000 Peaches, including nectarines 8,760 0% June
08094000 Plums and sloes 29,806 110,059 27% June
08101000 Strawberries 84 84 100% June
08102000 Raspberries, blackberries, mulberries and loganberries 501 0% June
08103000 Black, white or red currants and gooseberries 0 0% June
08104000 Cranberries, bilberries and other fruits of the genus Vaccinium 83,138 0% June
08105000 Kiwifruit 319,651 0% June
08106000 Durians 604,524 0% June
08107000 Persimmons 164 0% June
08109010 Lychee 21,842 0% June
08109030 Longan 351,681 0% June
08109040 Rambutan 4,470 0% June
08109050 Sugar Apple 37,099 0% June
08109060 Carambola 545 0% June
08109070 Wax Apple 10,233 0% June
08109080 Dragon Fruit 477,944 0% June
08109090 Other fruit, fresh 9,421 0% June
08131000 Dried apricots 76 2,028 4% June
08132000 Prunes 2,591 5,761 45% June
08133000 Dried apples 95 144 66% June
08134010 Dried Longans and Longan Pulp 24 59,090 0% June
08134020 Dried Persimmons 6 0% June
08134030 Dried Red jujubes 2 23 11% June
08134040 Preserved litchi 2 0% June
08134090 Dried, Other fruit 1,802 6,900 26% June
08135000 Mixtures of nuts or dried fruits of this Chapter 535 1,146 47% June
10011900 Durum Wheat 201,098 511,754 39% April, June
10019900 Other Wheat 60,235 394,493 15% April, June
10059000 Corn 112,323 779,381 14% April, June
10061011 Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) 0 0 33% June
10061019 Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) 178 0% June
10061091 Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) 2,980 0% June
10061099 Rice in the husk (paddy or rough) 1,044 0% June
10062010 Husked (brown) rice 28,566 0% June
10062090 Husked (brown) rice 236 0% June
10063010 Semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or glazed 867,798 0% June
10063090 Semi-milled or wholly milled rice, whether or not polished or glazed 3 454,397 0% June
10064010 Broken rice 118,614 0% June
10064090 Broken rice 155,456 0% June
10079000 Grain sorghum 1,562,714 1,808,025 86% April, June
11022000 Maize (corn) flour 16,973 18,945 90% April, June
11029011 Cereal flours other than of wheat or meslin- of Long Grain 2,778 0% June
11029019 Cereal flours other than of wheat or meslin – Other 104 26,164 0% June
11031921 Cereal groats, meal and pellets- of Long Grain 62 0% June
11031929 Cereal groats, meal and pellets – Other 118 0% June
12019010 Yellow soybeans 13,390,920 36,231,479 37% April, June
12019020 Black soybeans 800 1,406 57% April, June
12141000 Swedes, mangolds, fodder roots, hay – Lucerne (alfalfa) meal and pellets 518 8,160 6% June
12149000 Swedes, mangolds, fodder roots, hay – Other 409,779 519,925 79% June
14042000 Cotton linters 6,874 78,272 9% April, June
20089300 Cranberries (Vaccinium macrocarpon, Vaccinium oxycoccos, Vaccinium vitis-idaea) 32,580 37,705 86% April, June
20091100 Orange juice, frozen 704 99,040 1% April, June
20091200 Orange juice, not frozen, of a Brix value not exceeding 20 684 8,626 8% April, June
22072000 Ethanol 178,662 213,339 84% June
22083000 Whiskies 8,601 122,499 7% April, June
23033000 Dried distillers grains 916,031 916,945 100% April, June
23091010 Dog or cat food 1,292 20,795 6% June
23091090 Dog or cat food 10,243 24,768 41% June
24011010 Tobacco, not stemmed/stripped 11,277 0% April, June
24011090 Tobacco, not stemmed/stripped 3,736 0% April, June
24012010 Tobacco, partly or wholly stemmed/stripped 180,875 1,182,370 15% April, June
24012090 Tobacco, partly or wholly stemmed/stripped 58 15,688 0% April, June
24013000 Tobacco refuse 106 641 16% April, June
24021000 Cigars, cheroots and cigarillos, containing tobacco 20 9,640 0% April, June
24022000 Cigarettes containing tobacco 2,132 535,282 0% April, June
24029000 Other; cigars, cheroots, cigarillos and cigarettes, of tobacco or of tobacco substitutes 0 April, June
24031100 Water pipe tobacco 9 0% April, June
24031900 Other; Other manufactured tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 11 6,212 0% April, June
24039100 “Homogenised” or “reconstituted” tobacco 19,588 0% April, June
24039900 Other; Other manufactured tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 6 293 2% April, June
52010000 Cotton, not carded or combed 823,857 2,102,539 39% April, June
TOTAL 19,919,131 67,232,804 30%
Source: GTIS
Source: Veronica Nigh, Economist, Farm Bureau

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