The Outlook for Conventional Biofuels is Brighter than You Think01/04/2016
This is a presentation summary from the 2015 Illinois Farm Economics Summit (IFES) which occurred December 14-18, 2015. A complete collection of presentations including PowerPoint Slides (PPT) and printable summaries (PDF) are available here.
The EPA released the final rulemaking for 2014-2016 RFS standards on November 30. This release follows preliminary rulemaking released on May 29 of this year. The biodiesel and advanced mandates in the final rulemaking were only slightly larger than in the preliminary proposal. The ethanol mandates, as expected, were cut below statutory levels each year. However, the ethanol mandates, particularly for 2015 and 2016, were raised more than many expected compared to the levels in the preliminary proposal. Even though many were surprised, the increases in the ethanol mandates in the final rulemaking were consistent with the stated intention of the EPA to have a “push” in the mandates above the E10 blend wall. Language in the final rule making clearly confirmed this push strategy. For example:
“The 2016 standards are expected to spur further progress in overcoming current constraints in renewable fuel distribution infrastructure, which in turn is expected to lead to substantial growth over time in the production and use of renewable fuels.”