The U.S. agricultural trade deficit hit a record high of $19.7 billion in the first four months of 2025, according to American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Faith Parum. There were $78.2 billion in imports versus $58.5 billion in exports.

This marks the third consecutive year of a trade imbalance. The USDA now forecasts a $49.5 billion deficit for the full fiscal year. The primary driver of the gap is increased imports of high-value foods such as fruits and vegetables.

Despite the concerning numbers, some analysts believe the deficit may have reached its peak. Rabo AgriFinance Global Sector Strategist Stephen Nicholson attributes the spring surge in imports to buyers front-loading purchases ahead of potential tariffs announced by the Trump administration.

The uncertainty surrounding trade policy, coupled with global conflicts, high interest rates and rising input costs, has left the agricultural industry hesitant to invest or expand. Nicholson notes that without clarity on “the rules of the road,” planning is difficult.

The U.S. is also struggling to adapt to rapidly changing global trade dynamics. Competitors such as Brazil, Australia, and the EU are adopting more aggressive export strategies.

Critics argue the U.S. lacks a coherent trade strategy. There is more emphasis on tariffs than on market access. Farm groups continue to call for focused trade deals to expand ag exports. In the meantime, Nicholson advises farmers to monitor weather-driven market rallies.

Read more on the first quarter ag trade deficit here.