In the face of growing U.S. agricultural trade deficits, the dairy segment continues to post a net trade surplus. In 2024, U.S. dairy exports totaled $8.2 billion while imports stood at $5.4 billion, said Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist for CoBank. This is creating a $2.8 billion trade surplus.

In contrast, the USDA forecasts a $49.5 billion overall agricultural trade deficit due to rising imports of fresh produce and coffee. Looking ahead, dairy exports in 2025 are projected to be $8.6 billion, with imports at $5.6 billion. This would result in a $3 billion surplus, $200 million more than the 2024 surplus.

Key export drivers include cheese, butterfat and high-protein whey products. In May, cheese exports hit a record 114 million pounds. This was driven by increased demand from markets like Japan, South Korea and South America.

U.S. dairy’s competitive edge lies in lower prices compared to global leaders like the EU and New Zealand. However, exports to China, especially low- and high-protein whey, have seen sharp declines due to tariffs and shifting demand. Finding alternative markets will be crucial to sustaining momentum in global dairy sales.

Read more here about the dairy export forecast.