U.S. farm economists warn the current downturn in agriculture is not a collapse, but a grind. The Farm Journal October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor reports that weak trade, high input costs and ongoing consolidation are weighing on farm finances.

Nearly 60% say the economy has worsened over the past month and 76% expect conditions to persist or deteriorate through 2026. Row-crop margins remain under severe pressure, prompting talk of reduced production or land shifting to pasture and CRP.

While livestock markets remain profitable, economists caution they’re vulnerable if consumer spending slows. Nearly 70% see parallels to the 1980s farm crisis. These include tight liquidity, rising bankruptcies and eroding profitability. However, they note that stronger safety nets, such as crop insurance and federal loan programs, will prevent a repeat collapse.

Consolidation is accelerating, with 91% expecting fewer, larger farms. Higher entry barriers for young producers will erode rural diversity. Trade tensions with China remain a major drag: 88% say pre-trade-war demand is gone, with Brazil gaining from lost U.S. market share.

Economists say high rents, stagnant exports and limited policy vision are worsening strain. Despite solid land values and balance sheets, many farmers face “death by a thousand cuts.” The economists predict a slow, grinding struggle for profitability and survival.

Read more from the Farm Journal October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor here.