China’s soybean purchases from the U.S. stalled soon after Washington announced a trade truce with Beijing. China reportedly pledged to buy 12 million tons by year-end and 25 million tons annually for three years.

Traders report no new U.S. shipments. This raises doubts about the credibility of the commitment. Analysts suggest the pledge was essentially a diplomatic gesture.

China has already secured large volumes from South America to diversify supplies. According to Rabobank, this shift means Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans will likely remain weak regardless of trade deals.

China’s state trader, COFCO, recently signed contracts worth over $10 billion to buy nearly 20 million tons of Brazilian soybeans and related products from major global traders, with no mention of U.S. goods. While some U.S. purchases have occurred as goodwill gestures, Beijing’s primary focus remains on Brazil.

Meanwhile, China faces a soybean glut after record imports, with stocks at ports reaching 10.3 million tons and processors holding 7.5 million tons. This is the highest since 2017.

Oversupply and weak crush margins have reduced demand for additional imports, as Chinese processors face financial losses and Brazilian beans remain cheaper even with U.S. tariff waivers.

Read more on the U.S. soybean sales to China here.