A new five-year outlook from Rabobank shows the California almond market is shifting toward tighter supply and higher prices. Roland Fumasi, head of RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness North America, notes that almond prices have strengthened over the past 18 months and are projected to continue rising over the next several years as older orchards are removed and total bearing acreage declines. While yield improvements and demand growth won’t be linear, the expected reduction in supply should support more substantial grower returns compared with the recent past.

The report highlights that the almond industry, after several challenging years of oversupply and depressed prices, is moving toward a more balanced market. Prices aren’t expected to climb in a straight line as near-term carry-in stocks and slower demand growth will temper gains in 2026 and 2027, but as acreage continues to age out and demand remains stable, grower prices are likely to trend higher over the five-year horizon.

Read more commentary from The Packer and the full Rabobank report here.