The Almond Alliance of California is collaborating with the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) to improve the accuracy of annual almond production estimates. One goal is to better account for abandoned or stressed orchards.

Growers strongly questioned NASS’s July estimate of a 3.0-billion-pound crop. The forecast triggered a 50-cent price drop before a partial recovery.

Early harvest results suggest closer to 2.8 billion pounds. This validates growers’ concerns. The confusion stemmed from how NASS handled acreage no longer actively managed.

Industry estimates suggest there are around 30,000 acres of abandoned orchards. These areas are still counted as “bearing” despite low or zero production. Removing orchards costs about $3,000 per acre. This forces many farmers to leave them idle due to high costs, weak returns, and post-pandemic challenges.

In response to industry feedback, NASS issued a clarification in September. It states that all bearing acres, including distressed or poorly maintained ones, are included in its forecasts unless officially confirmed as abandoned.

While Land IQ satellite data largely aligns with NASS acreage figures, growers continue to report smaller yields. The Almond Alliance now aims to refine the data collection process to ensure clearer, more reliable reports that support informed decisions and promote long-term market stability.

Read more here about the Almond Alliance working with NASS to improve annual almond production estimates.