Drought, beef imports and packing plant changes are setting up for a bumpy fourth quarter for the cattle market, according to Terrain senior research analyst Dave Weaber. In his Q4 cattle and beef outlook, Weaber points to data showing that by the end of summer, more than 80% of the U.S. cattle inventory was in areas that were abnormally dry or worse. Adding to ranchers’ challenges, hay prices in the central and northern Plains climbed by $150-$200 per ton in about 60 days.

The reopening of key import border locations in Arizona and New Mexico has made headlines in recent months, but Weaber believes it will add only marginal support, increasing ground beef availability by 2% to 3%. His Q4 forecast has live steers in the top 5 U.S. regions averaging $230 to $235 per cwt and feeder cattle at $350 to $370 per cwt, both close to last year’s levels.

With no shortage of market volatility, risk management tools like Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) can bring operational stability and peace of mind to ranchers.

Read more commentary on the report from AgWeb.