Updated 2025 estimates for Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments suggest farmers could see meaningful support payments across major row crops in October 2026. Using newly released county yield data and USDA price projections, Farmdoc estimates average payments of $58 per base acre for corn, $29 for soybeans and $47 for wheat. The updated projections reflect changes made under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which increased potential payment levels beginning with the 2025 crop year.

The report notes that payment estimates for corn and wheat declined slightly from earlier forecasts due to higher yields and improved price expectations. In contrast, soybean payment estimates increased because of weaker price outlooks and lower yields in some regions. ARC payments are projected to exceed PLC payments in many areas where yields are expected to fall below benchmark levels, particularly across portions of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Final payments will depend on USDA marketing year prices and Farm Service Agency yield data that will be finalized later this year.

Read the full article to see how updated ARC and PLC estimates could impact payments in your county.

Monaco, H., G. Schnitkey, N. Paulson, J. Coppess and C. Zulauf. “2025 ARC/PLC Final Estimates.” farmdoc daily (16):85, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 14, 2026.