USDA estimates point to Brazil as the potential 2023 global corn powerhouse. As Brazil and China reach a deal on phytosanitary requirements, the first Brazilian corn shipping container arrived in China in November. Though China is only Brazil’s 11th largest customer, the purchase was enough to bolster Brazil’s corn exports to a whopping 48 million metric tons (mmt), up 21 mmt from 2021.
Analysts say Brazil could export between 6 and 10 mmt of corn to China in 2023, adding to the USDA projection of 50 mmt, closely narrowing out the U.S. corn export estimate of 48.9 mmt. The shift in export power could harm U.S. farmers’ pocketbooks with greater global supplies. With ongoing increases in production costs amidst record-high inflation, 2023 is not the year for a global corn surplus.
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