Despite the overall numbers aligning with expectations, the USDA’s September Cattle on Feed report highlights shifting regional dynamics. Just over 11 million cattle were in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more as of September 1. That is down 1.1% from last year. It is the lowest September total since 2019.

The Southern Plains and Southwest posted sharp declines. Texas, the largest feeding state, reported a 9.1% decrease. This was the state’s lowest September level since 2016. Arizona, California, Colorado and Oklahoma also reported decreases. This reflects the impact of the U.S.-Mexico border closure, which is cutting off seasonal imports of Mexican feeder cattle.

In contrast, Northern states expanded. Nebraska was up 4.7%. Kansas increased 3.1%. There were also gains in Iowa, South Dakota, Washington and Idaho. Nebraska is now positioned to surpass Texas as the top feeding state.

Marketings in August fell 13.6% from last year. This is partly due to one fewer slaughter day. However, it is still the lowest monthly level since records began in the mid-1990s. Placements also declined 9.9% year-over-year. An 18.1% drop in Texas was partially responsible.

With cyclical herd reductions and heifers held back for rebuilding, tighter supplies and more record-low figures are expected ahead.

Read more about cattle placements on feedlots here.