Ten-year estimates for the mandatory farm bill programs including Commodities (Title I), Conservation (Title II), Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Title IV) and crop insurance, have been released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). With the Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018 (Farm Bill) currently scheduled to expire next year, Congress is taking the first steps to decide how the new farm bill will look. The CBO baseline is a critical component of farm bill reauthorization because the law requires the ag committees to not spend above the established baseline.
Higher expected crop prices result in decreased total spending beginning in FY2024, especially for the Commodities title that includes Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs. Conservation programs continue to show steady growth. The CBO projects crop insurance costs to decrease noticeably, mirroring the reduction in fiscal year estimates. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the largest budget item in the mandatory farm bill programs, with the outlay being approximately 85% from FY2023 through FY2032, and looks to see decreases in spending when the COVID-19 pandemic assistance expires.
Citation: Coppess, J., K. Swanson, N. Paulson, G. Schnitkey and C. Zulauf. “Reviewing the Latest CBO Farm Baseline.” farmdoc daily (12):80, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, June 1, 2022
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