With global supply, production costs and geopolitics all in flux, farmers face a tough call on how much 2027 fertilizer to price this fall. Corey Rosenbusch of The Fertilizer Institute says the impact varies by input. China has hinted at easing its stance on urea exports, which could bring some relief to tight nitrogen markets. Phosphate faces a different problem, as higher sulfur costs tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have idled some MAP and DAP production. Potash is still tied to Canadian supply and Belarusian product returning to the market is expected to follow global prices rather than come in cheaper.

In a September survey of ag economists, 44% recommended buying part of 2027 fertilizer now and pricing the rest later, while 28% suggested locking in most or all needs this fall. Most do not expect lower prices by spring, and USDA data put anhydrous ammonia at $945 per ton for the week ending October 2.

Read the full fertilizer outlook from AgWeb.