Exports Continue Bullish Grain Influence

As farmers continue work to get the 2021 crops planted, CME Group grain futures prices are skyrocketing, so much so that the board raised daily trading limits for corn after prices hit limit-up in Monday’s session. Exports are a major component of that, and recent analysis shows U.S. corn exports “currently exceed the historical pace” needed to match up with USDA’s bushel projection earlier this month. Export inspections are around 10% higher than they were in two of the last three years, a sign that exports will continue at their strong clip, especially if production disruptions and yield disappointments continue in Brazil and Argentina, major U.S. grain competitors on the world market. China remains the dominant player, accounting for about half of U.S. grain export commitments. But the longer grain prices remain as high as they currently are, demand destruction or reduction could enter the equation and force export buyers to other sellers. As a result, look for USDA to revise its export data in its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. See more.