Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the third week of November 2019 continued mostly lower. This lower trend in prices has been in place for several months now.
Seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower in price from the month earlier, although once again none were considerably lower. DAP had an average price of $456/ton, MAP $466/ton, potash $381/ton, urea $387/ton, anhydrous $496/ton, UAN28 $245/ton and UAN32 $284/ton.
The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, was slightly higher from last month with an average price of $472/ton.
On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.
All the weather issues surrounding corn production this growing season have weighed heavily on some fertilizer stocks. One stock analyst, however, expects a rebound into next year, according to Dow Jones.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Byrne upgraded CF Industries Holding and Nutrien to “Buy” from “Neutral” on Monday. He noted both stocks could benefit from an agricultural rebound.
Nutrien stock was up 1.1% and CF Industries was up 2.7% in trading Monday afternoon.
“After a year of markedly lower fertilizer prices, we believe fertilizer shares reflect particularly attractive buying opportunities given our expectation for a price inflection by spring in all three major nutrients,” Byrne wrote. “Phosphate and potash inventories remain high, but strong demand in North America, Brazil and India should facilitate quick drawdowns and increased purchasing.”
Prospects are for more corn acres next spring and companies that sell fertilizer could benefit, he wrote.
Byrne wrote CF Industries’ low-cost position should allow it to benefit in the medium term despite technological and industry developments which will continue to put some pressure on nitrogen prices. Nutrien’s nitrogen and potash businesses are at the low end of the global cost curve and well positioned for future growth, he wrote.
Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP is now 12% less expensive, DAP is 9% lower, urea is 5% less expensive, anhydrous is 4% lower and both UAN28 and UAN32 are 1% less expensive from last year at this time. In addition, 10-34-0 is 3% more expensive and potash is 4% higher compared to last year.
DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.
DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.
Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.
|Nov 19-23 2018||501||530||368||407|
|Dec 17-21 2018||508||532||377||407|
|Jan 14-18 2019||512||534||383||407|
|Feb 11-15 2019||512||537||385||405|
|Mar 11-15 2019||510||534||386||402|
|Apr 8-12 2019||505||532||387||404|
|May 6-10 2019||501||527||391||418|
|Jun 3-7 2019||497||527||392||434|
|Jul 1-5, 2019||498||532||392||432|
|Jul 29-Aug 2 2019||494||530||393||428|
|Aug 26-30 2019||491||494||387||412|
|Sep 23-27, 2019||479||475||384||404|
|Oct 21-25, 2019||465||473||383||404|
|Nov 18-22 2019||456||466||381||387|
|Nov 19-23 2018||457||520||246||287|
|Dec 17-21 2018||457||565||265||304|
|Jan 14-18 2019||462||580||270||305|
|Feb 11-15 2019||470||596||271||318|
|Mar 11-15 2019||469||596||269||318|
|Apr 8-12 2019||481||592||271||317|
|May 6-10 2019||487||595||267||310|
|Jun 3-7 2019||487||591||271||314|
|Jul 1-5, 2019||482||584||276||317|
|Jul 29-Aug 2 2019||486||580||272||320|
|Aug 26-30 2019||470||528||256||290|
|Sep 23-27, 2019||471||511||254||289|
|Oct 21-25, 2019||471||507||251||291|
|Nov 18-22 2019||472||496||245||284|
Russ Quinn can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN
Source: Russ Quinn, DTN
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