NRCS photo by Carly Whitmore

The USDA July WASDE report came with surprises on Friday, with a larger-than-expected cut to corn stocks. New corn crop ending stocks were pulled down 170 million bushels (to 1.8 billion bushels) and old crop were down 125 million bushels (to 2 billion bushels), sending corn, soybean and wheat futures sharply higher on the day. Wheat production drew particular attention, projected at its smallest level since 1970/71, and global corn supplies also tightened to their lowest level in years.

With supply cushions now thinner across all three crops, analysts say the market’s attention is shifting squarely to weather over the rest of the growing season, particularly heat in the western Corn Belt and how conditions shape up through August. Any further weather-driven yield hits from here could have an outsized impact on already-tight balance sheets.

Read more commentary from AgWeb and the full USDA WASDE report here.