The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook places the odds for La Niña developing by the June-July-August time frame are 62% and 75% in the July-August-September period. In short, La Niña is expected to form in the Pacific by mid to late summer — during the kernel-filling segment of the corn growing season.

With that high probability of a mid to late summer settling in of La Niña, forecasts are calling for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the central U.S. at this critical period for corn yield determination. A look at analog years, which featured a reasonably quick change in the Pacific Ocean from El Niño to La Niña, suggests that U.S. corn production will have a tough time posting trendline yields.

Learn more about how La Niña may impact corn yields here.