The Midwest will continue to see late-winter temperature swings through February and into March, with snow and colder air returning, but only temporarily, before warmer air pushes back in again. Forecasters from AccuWeather and NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center say recent below-average cold fronts will ease midweek before another cold surge around the end of February and early March. However, overall temperatures are expected to trend near or above normal for late winter. These shifting conditions are largely within the range of seasonal expectations, and the pattern should allow farmers in the Plains and Mississippi Valley to keep planting plans on track as spring approaches.

In addition to fluctuating temperatures, the Midwest can expect mixed precipitation patterns and localized weather risks. Snow is forecast from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes to close out this week, while rainfall is likely to the south and drought conditions continue in the Plains. With warmer spells arriving, there’s some risk of ice jam flooding in southern Illinois and Missouri, and gusty winds could erode soil nutrients where snowpack is thin. Farmers are advised to monitor these conditions carefully in the final weeks of winter before fieldwork begins.

Read more details on the forecast and what it could mean for spring planting.