Nitrogen availability will continue to be a pain point for U.S. farmers in 2023. Affected by obstacles such as the war in Ukraine, rising natural gas prices and weather, the availability and price of nitrogen fertilizers will remain a concern and be dependent on geopolitical events throughout the new year.

Even if price inflation wanes, supply chain challenges will continue to inflate prices. The International Fertilizer Association’s (IFA) Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook for 2022 -2026, released this summer, said world nitrogen capacity this year was estimated to be just under 160 MMT. Optimistically, 2023 capacity would remain at the same level, though a modest decline is expected, lowering capacity by 0.3 MMT.

Read more on Nitrogen supplies and cost forecasting here.