After a relatively steady decline in fertilizer prices throughout the summer, a resurgence in nitrogen prices is affecting farmers ahead of the 2023 crop season. Natural gas prices are not the only drivers of these spikes. Despite the positive news around the rail strike agreement between unions and railroads, nitrogen prices have still climbed back toward the highs producers saw last spring.

A Missouri ag retailer reported that farmers booking fall anhydrous applications are paying $1,325 per ton. To put that in perspective, farmers were paying $800 per ton in the fall of 2021. But if not natural gas, what’s ultimately driving the price hike? Energy shocks in Europe have left questions about the winter natural gas supply and availability, as well as transportation challenges. Volatility will continue to be the theme in the nitrogen market moving ahead to 2023.

Read more on fall nitrogen prices here.