Planning for the Future: Researchers Calculate Potential Changes for 2023 Predicted Grain Prices

Projected prices allow producers to plan for the future, helping determine the right level of crop insurance to protect their operations. This is especially true in a season of uncertainty with input prices. While the realized 2023 projected prices won’t be determined until February, historical data is helping researchers understand where the market may be headed after 2022. Based on their work, they found a 62% chance that predicted prices for corn will fall between $5.65 to $6.65. For soybeans, they see a 48% chance for predicted prices to fall between $13 and $14.

The group included researchers from the University of Illinois and Ohio State University, who charted more than 20 years of agricultural data to understand potential correlations between the previous year’s prices, projected prices and harvest prices. They note signs point to reasonably high projected prices, which will be important for farmers as input costs remain high. However, they also note current events may influence prices before they are set. These include Brazilian agriculture performance, the Ukraine-Russia conflict and world economic conditions.

Read more on their research here.

Projection analysis reference: Schnitkey, G., C. Zulauf, K. Swanson, N. Paulson and J. Baltz. “What Will 2023 Projected Prices Be?” farmdoc daily (12):151, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, October 4, 2022.