Angus cattle in a feedlotThe USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) trimmed its 2025 farm income forecast. This is due to weakness in crop markets despite strong gains in livestock.

Net cash farm income is projected at $180.7 billion. This is a 25% increase from 2024 but below February’s $193.7 billion estimate. Net farm income, a broader profit measure, is forecast at $179.8 billion. This is up 37% year over year, yet slightly under earlier projections.

Both net cash farm income and net farm income remain above the 20-year average. This is due primarily to record government support. Direct payments are expected to reach $40.5 billion in 2025. This is the highest since 2020. It includes $34.2 billion in supplemental and disaster aid.

Cash receipts overall are forecast to rise 4.7% nominally. However, crop revenues will fall with corn down 3.7%, soybeans down 7.1%, and wheat down 9.8%. Livestock is driving growth, with cattle receipts up 15.7% and hogs up 9.5%. Production expenses remain flat at $467.4 billion. Labor costs are projected to rise 4.2% while feed, pesticides and fuel decline.

Read more on the revised USDA farm income forecast here.