USDA Leaves Corn and Soybean Production, Supply and Demand Unchanged

USDA still projects corn production at 13.66 billion bushels (bb) and soybean production at 3.55 bb. The agency also left yields untouched, with the average corn yield pegged at 167 bushels per acre (bpa) and soybeans at 46.9 bpa.

Those estimates were in line with market expectations for USDA’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. With millions of bushels of grain still unharvested and no new numbers from NASS this month, revised crop estimates for the 2019 crop season will likely wait until the January 2020 WASDE, DTN analysts noted.

USDA also did not make any changes to domestic supply and demand, which left corn and soybean ending stocks the same.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and soybeans; slightly bullish for wheat. The 2019-20 world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn and wheat, but neutral for soybeans.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

As with production and yield, USDA left corn harvested acres at 81.8 million this month, the same as their November estimate.

Corn ending stocks remained at 1.91 bb, the same as last month and within pre-report analyst expectations.

USDA also left average farm-gate prices for corn at $3.85 dollars per bushel, the same as its November estimate.

USDA left Brazil and Argentina corn production unchanged from November, at 101 million metric tons (mmt) and 50 mmt, respectively.

USDA did make other tweaks to the global corn supply and demand, however. Overall, foreign corn ending stocks were raised from last month, with increases in China, Bolivia and Taiwan. As a result, global corn ending stocks are estimated at 300.56 mmt, up 4.6 mmt from 295.96 mmt in November, and above the range of pre-report analyst estimates.

Total global corn demand increased slightly as well to 1,127.23 mmt, up from 1,126.27 mmt in the November report.

SOYBEANS

As with corn, soybean harvested acres were left untouched at 75.6 million acres.

Soybean ending stocks remained at 475 mb, within pre-report expectations, and USDA left export and use estimates untouched as well.

Only average soybean farmgate prices were adjusted downward to $8.85 per bushel, down 15 cents from November.

Globally, soybean ending stocks rose to 96.4 mmt, up from 95.42 mmt in November, based on increases for China and Brazil. USDA left Brazil and Argentina soybean production estimates untouched at 123 mmt and 53 mmt, respectively.

Global soybean exports were adjusted down 0.6 mmt to 149.15 mmt, based on a lower forecast for Argentina.

WHEAT

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 were trimmed to 974 million bushels (mb), down from the month’s total of 1.014 bb and below pre-report estimates. Given that production remained the same, that drop was driven by increased exports and lowered imports.

Specifically, USDA boosted exports by 25 mb, based on more competitive prices and reduced supplies from several major competitors. They dropped wheat imports 15 mb to 105 mb, which — if realized — would be the lowest imports in nine years.

Despite tighter supplies, wheat’s estimated average farm-gate price of $4.55 per bushel was 5 cents lower than last month.

Globally, 2019-20 ending stocks were estimated at a record 289.50 million metric tons, up 1.22 mmt from last month and above pre-report estimates, based on a 1.4-mmt decrease in global use.

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Editor’s Note: For a brief discussion of USDA’s latest estimates we will have a Facebook Live broadcast from DTN’s Ag Summit in Chicago, starting around 11:45 a.m. CST. To watch, visit:

Source: DTN