USDA lowered corn and soybean production and yield on Thursday, dropping corn production to 13.799 billion bushels and dropping soybean production to 3.633 billion bushels.
USDA lowered corn yield to 168.2 bushels per acre (bpa), still higher than the pre-report average. Soybean yields were lowered to 47.9 bpa
USDA on Thursday released its September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) reports.
Thursday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat, while 2019-20 World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat, noted DTN senior analyst Todd Hultman.
Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.
For DTN’s exclusive audio comments on today’s reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
Corn production for the 2019-20 crop was lowered 102 million bushels (mb) from last month’s estimate to 13.799 billion bushels (bb), down from 14.4 bb in the 2018-19 crop.
The average pre-report estimate by analysts came in at 13.61 bb.
Yield remained higher than anticipated at 168.2 bpa, down from 169.5 bpa estimated in August. The average pre-report yield was 166.7 bpa.
Thursday’s report was the first time this season that USDA had actual field data for its survey.
For usage, USDA slightly lowered food, seed and industrial uses 25 mb for the 2019-20 crop 6.88 bb. Ethanol demand was also lowered 25 mb as well to 5.45 bb. Despite trade uncertainty, USDA held pat with export demand pegged at 2.05 bb, the same as the August forecast.
The 2019-20 ending stocks for corn came in at 2.19 bb, up 9 mb from the August forecast.
The average farmgate price for the 2019-20 corn crop is projected at $3.60 a bushel, the same as the August estimate.
In world numbers, USDA maintained Brazil’s 2018-19 corn production at 101 million metric tons, (3.97 bb), the same as August. Argentina’s production was also the same as last month at 51 mmt (just over 2 bb).
For the 2019-20 world supply and use projections, USDA increased beginning stocks nearly 1 mmt to 329.55 mmt but lowered global production by 3.36 mmt. The result was 1.45 mmt lower ending stocks to an estimated 306.27 mmt.
USDA says soybean farmers will harvest 3.63 bb this year with a national average yield of 47.9 bpa, close to the average pre-report estimate. That’s 47 mb and 0.6 bpa lower than last month, respectively.
The agency expects 2018-19 ending stocks at 1.01 bb, a decline of 65 mb from last month on higher exports and crush. USDA increased exports 45 mb based on official trade data through July and indications that August inspections were a record high.
USDA forecast new crop (2019-20) ending stocks at 640 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. That’s 115 mb below last month due to a decline in beginning stocks and the lower production estimate.
The national average farm gate price for both old and new crop years is $8.50.
Globally, old-crop ending stocks came in at 112.4 mmt, below the range of pre-report expectations. USDA lowered it’s 2019-20 ending stocks forecast to 99.2 million metric tons, a 2.55 mmt drop from last month.
USDA left 2019-20 U.S. wheat production at 1.980 bb and average yield at 51.6 bpa.
New-crop U.S. wheat ending stocks were also left at 1.014 bb, as anticipated by pre-report analyst estimates. USDA also left domestic use and demand untouched from its August report. Only the farm-gate average price was changed, down 20 cents from the August estimate to $4.80 per bushel.
Globally, old-crop (2018-19) wheat ending stocks are estimated at 277.24 million metric tons, slightly down from August’s estimate of 275.5 mmt, but within pre-report estimates.
New-crop world ending stocks reached 286.51 mmt (10.49 bb), within pre-report expectations. Despite a 2-million-ton drop in production from Australia, now in its second year of drought, that number represents a new record high for global wheat stocks, with China comprising 51% of the total.
Join us Thursday, Sept. 12 at noon CDT when we broadcast a brief summary and comment on USDA’s latest estimates live from the grounds of Husker Harvest Days in Grand Island, Nebraska. Sign up for Thursday’s webinar at: https://dtn.webex.com/…
|U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2019-20 (WASDE)|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20|
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