USDA expects farmers to harvest 13.8 billion bushels (bb) of corn this fall with a national average yield of 168.4 bushels per acre (bpa). The production estimate came in slightly higher than expected, while yield was only increased by 0.2 bpa.
Soybean production was forecast at 3.55 bb, within the range of pre-report estimates, while the national average yield was 46.9 bpa, also within expectations.
Soybean ending stocks, however, dropped to 460 million bushels (mb), a 180 mb decline that’s within the range of pre-report estimates.
Thursday’s new U.S. ending stocks and 2019-20 world ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, bullish for soybeans and neutral for wheat, noted to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.
Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.
You can also access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
With USDA forecasting a yield of 168.4 bpa and harvested acreage of 81.8 million, that puts total production at 13.8 bb, down less than 1% from September’s estimates.
After finding smaller stockpiles at the end of the 2018-19 marketing year than expected in the September 30 Grain Stocks report, USDA put total beginning stocks for the new-crop marketing year at 2.11 bb, 331 mb below its September estimate. USDA increased its forecast for feed and residual use by 125 mb, while lowering ethanol use by 50 mb. It also slashed exports to 1.9 bb from 2.05 bb last month.
As a result, ending stocks dropped to 1.93 bb, breaking through the psychologically important 2 bb mark and falling toward the high side of pre-report estimates.
The national average farmgate price increased by 20 cents to $3.80
Globally, corn stocks came at 302.6 million metric tons (mmt), down 3.7 mmt from last month but slightly above the range of pre-report expectations.
Corn ending stocks-to-use ratio totaled 13.8% compared to last month’s 15.5%.
USDA pegged new-crop soybean production at 3.550 bb, down from 3.633 bb in September. That drop was enabled by the agency’s tweak to average soybean yield, down to 46.9 bpa, 1 bpa lower than the September estimate. Harvested acres were also trimmed to 75.6 million acres.
New-crop ending stocks came in at 460 mb, on the lower end of pre-report analyst estimates. The drop came largely from USDA’s trimming of old-crop soybean stocks to 913 mb, down from 1.005 bb in September. To find that lower old crops ending stocks number, USDA adjusted old-crop production down to 4.428 bb, down from 4.544 bb.
The U.S. average farmgate price for soybeans was pegged at $9 per bushel, up from $8.50 last month.
Globally, new-crop soybean ending stocks landed at 95.21 million metric tons (mmt), down from 99.19 mmt in September, and also on the low end of pre-report expectations.
Wheat production for 2019-20 was trimmed slightly to 1.962 bb. However, predicted new-crop ending stocks were adjusted upward to 1.043 bb, on the higher end of pre-report estimates, and mostly based on lower feed and residual use and lower exports.
USDA estimated average wheat farmgate prices at $4.70 dollars per bushel, down from $4.80 in September.
Global 2019-20 wheat ending stocks were pegged at 287.8 mmt, on the high end of pre-report analyst estimates. USDA left Russian and Ukraine wheat production untouched but adjusted EU production up 1 mmt to 152 mmt. The agency trimmed Australian wheat production estimates by 1 mmt, to 18 mmt.
For wheat, the ending stocks-to-use ratio is 49.3%, a 2.6 percentage point increase from last month.
Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CST on Thursday, Oct. 10, for a look at what the day’s numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…
|U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2019-20 (WASDE)|
|U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2019-20|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20|
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