USDA Reports Quarterly Stocks Lower Than Estimates

USDA on Monday reported quarterly stocks on September 1 for corn at 2.11 billion bushels and soybeans at 911 million bushels, both coming in lower than the average pre-report estimate by traders.

Monday’s Grain Stocks report was bullish for corn and soybeans, neutral for wheat, according to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Small Grains Summary and quarterly Grain Stocks: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

For DTN’s exclusive audio comments on today’s reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

CORN

Old-crop corn came in on Sept. 1 at 2.11 billion bushels (bb), down 1% from last year’s 2.14 bb.

With the end of the 2018-19 marketing year, that 2.11 bb carries over as the beginning stocks for the 2019-20 marketing years.

The report also shows more usage than expected because the average trader stockpile for Sept. 1 was 2.436 bb.

On-farm storage for corn was projected at 753 million bushels (mb), a 22% increase from last year’s on-farm holdings on Sept. 1. Off-farm stocks were projected at 1.36 bb, down 10% from last year’s total.

The June-August “disappearance” or usage was 3.09 bb, down slightly from 3.16 bb for the same period in 2018.

SOYBEANS

USDA said soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 totaled 913 mb. That’s up 108% from last year, but below the range of pre-report expectations. Traders had expected USDA’s estimate to fall within 940 mb and 1.001 bb.

On-farm stocks totaled 265 mb, up 162% from last year, while stocks in off-farm locations totaled 648 mb.

Disappearance for the June to August timeframe totaled 870 mb, up 11% from the same period a year prior.

USDA revised 2018 production down by 116 mb from its previous estimate, with planted area declining to 89.2 million acres (ma)and harvested acreage dropping to 87.6 ma. The national average yield estimate was revised down 1 bushel per acre (bpa) to 50.6 bpa.

WHEAT

All wheat stocks as of Sept. 1 totaled 2.38 billion bushels, down slightly from last year. USDA said 776 mb were stored on-farm, while 1.61 bb were stored in off-farm locations. Those numbers are up 23% and down 8% respectively.

The June to August disappearance totaled 657 mb, up 11% from the year prior.

SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY

All-wheat production totaled 1.96 bb for 2019, up 4% from the revised 2018 total of 1.89 bb. All harvested area came in at 38.1 ma, down 4% from last year as well. Yield was pegged at 51.6 bpa, up 4% from 2018.

Breaking down each wheat type, winter wheat was 1.3 bb, up 10% from last year; spring wheat totaled 600 mb, down 4% from last year; and Durum wheat was 57.7 mb, down 26% from a year ago.

Barley production was estimated at 171 mb, up 12% from 2018’s production of 154 mb. The average yield was 77.4 bushels, down just .1 bushel per acre from last year. Farmers planted 2.72 ma, up 7% from 2018 and harvested area was 2.21 ma, up 12% from last year.

Oat production came in at 54.2 mb, up 1% from 2018. Yield was estimated at 64.4 bpa, down .9 bushels from 2018 for comparable states. Harvested area came in at 842,000 acres, up 2% from last year.

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Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CST on Monday, Sept. 30, for a look at what the day’s numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…

Source: DTN