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USDA Reports Summary


USDA on Friday raised corn ending stocks by 100 million bushels, lowering export and ethanol demand, and also made no change to the forecast for soybean exports, leaving it pat at 1.875 billion bushels, but dropped soybean ending stocks 10 million bushels to 900 million bushels.

U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2018-19 crop were pegged at 1.835 billion bushels, up 100 million bushels from the February forecast.

USDA released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for March on Friday.

Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat.

Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

For DTN’s exclusive audio comments on today’s reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA raised the new-crop ending stocks by 100 million bushels to 1.835 billion bushels, which fell within the pre-report analysts’ estimates.

World corn stockpiles were projected at 308.53 million metric tons, down from 309.78 mmt in February. The March projection was within pre-report estimates.

USDA projects Brazil’s corn crop at 94.5 mmt, unchanged from the February estimate. USDA’s estimate for Brazil’s corn crop comes in slightly lower than the pre-report estimate of 94.6 mmt.

USDA forecasts Argentina’s corn crop at 46 mmt, unchanged from February.

The average farm-gate price was left unchanged from last month at $3.36 a bushel.

Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.550 billion based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during February as indicated by Energy Information Administration data.

Exports are reduced 75 million bushels to 2.375 billion, reflecting diminished U.S. price competitiveness and expectations of increased exports for Brazil and Argentina. With no other use changes, ending stocks are raised 100 million bushels to 1.835 billion.

SOYBEANS

Despite expectations for new soybean exports, USDA left soybean exports at 1.875 billion bushels, unchanged from February. Production was left unchanged at 4.544 billion bushels with yield projected at 51.6 bushels an acre.

The only major change for domestic crush was raised 10 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. That led USDA to lower ending stocks for 2018-19 to 900 million bushels. That fell close to the average pre-report estimate.

USDA lowered Brazil’s soybean production 500,000 metric tons production 116.5 million metric tons (4.28 billion bushels). Argentina’s soybean production was held pat at 55 million metric tons, (2.02 billion bushels).

Despite projections of African swine fever affecting feed use in China, China’s soybean imports in March were projected at 88 million metric tons, the same as February.

The average U.S. farm-gate price for soybeans was listed at $9 a bushel.

WHEAT

USDA raised the new-crop ending stocks by 45 million bushels to 1.055 billion bushels, which came in above the pre-report analysts’ estimates.

World wheat stockpiles were projected at 270.53 mmt, up from 267.5 mmt in February. The March projection was above pre-report estimates.

Supplies are increased by 5 million bushels on higher imports. Wheat exports are lowered 35 million bushels to 965 million with reductions in Hard Red Spring and White on stronger-than-expected export competition for these classes.

Global wheat supplies are reduced, primarily on lower production forecasts for Kazakhstan and Iraq. Projected 2018-19 world trade is fractionally higher as larger EU and Brazil exports more than offset reductions for the United States and Mexico. The EU is increased 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million, as its recent improved export competiveness is expected to continue for the remainder of the trade year.

The average farm-gate price for wheat was projected at $5.15 a bushel.

**

Editor’s Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CST on Friday, March 8, for a look at what the day’s numbers mean for grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
Mar Avg High Low Feb 2017-18
Corn 1,835 1,755 1,835 1,685 1,735 2,140
Soybeans 900 898 940 852 910 438
Wheat 1,055 1,024 1,050 1,010 1,010 1,099
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019
Mar Avg High Low Feb 2017-18
Corn 308.5 309.1 312.0 306.3 309.8 340.8
Soybeans 107.2 106.3 113.6 104.4 106.7 98.1
Wheat 270.5 267.8 269.0 266.0 267.5 280.0
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2018-19
Mar Avg High Low Feb 2017-18
CORN
Argentina 46.0 46.0 47.0 44.0 46.0 32.0
Brazil 94.5 94.6 96.0 93.0 94.5 82.0
SOYBEANS
Argentina 55.0 55.2 56.7 53.0 55.0 37.8
Brazil 116.5 115.4 117.0 113.0 117.0 120.8

Source: DTN

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