Let’s look at some numbers to see how HPAI may affect the milk supply. There are roughly 26,500 licensed dairy farms in the U.S. If 5% of the farms were infected, that would be 1,325 farms. With their production down about 1% for the year, it would reduce total U.S. milk production for the year by 0.04%.

If 30% of the farms become infected, it would reduce U.S. milk production by 0.23% for the entire year. The short-term impact on U.S. milk production would be more significant.

On an annualized basis, the impact of HPAI on U.S. milk production looks minimal. There are only 300 dairy farms in Texas but 5,900 in Wisconsin. To date, the USDA hasn’t confirmed any cases in Wisconsin. If the virus spreads to the Upper Midwest, that could slow production for a month or two. However, even if dairy farms in Wisconsin were infected, that would only reduce U.S. milk production by about a tenth of a percent.

Read more about the impact of HPAI on the milk supply here.