This warming of the equatorial Pacific is traditionally observed around Christmas, and its name refers to the Christ child in Spanish. Government forecasters today increased odds the event will develop this winter and last into spring.
This month’s update showed better than 50% odds of El Nino persisting into the June-August period. If it lasts into the fall, U.S. farmers could see above average yields for corn, soybeans and wheat.
Corn and soybean growers fear El Nino’s twin, La Nina, which is the cooling of the equatorial Pacific. These events have been seen during some, but not all, of the big droughts in the U.S.
Still, while traders sometimes like to make a big deal of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle, as it’s known, it’s important to remember that the correlations between this weather event yields, though statistically significant, is relatively small. Weather is complicated, especially as it relates to crop yields grown over large regions like the U.S.
Source: Farm Futures
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