The 4 Trump Policies With Biggest Implications for Ag Industry12/01/2016
At the 2016 Agricultural Retailers Association Conference, Stuart Rothenberg, founder of The Rothenberg & Gonzalez Political Report, shared insights into the 2016 election and what’s next.
“Trump has got a full agenda with six to nine months of good will with a Republican House and Senate,” he explained.
Here are the issues with the biggest impact on ag on his policy docket and Rothenberg’s analysis of how things could proceed:
- Infrastructure. Rothenberg’s biggest question: Where will the money come from?
- Immigration. “He seems to be backing off some of his strongest statements,” Rothenberg says.
- Trade. Rothenberg’s biggest question: “Will he renegotiate or enter a whole new phase.”
- Tax reform. “This includes both corporate and individual rate, which is a huge undertaking,” Rothenberg says.
“We’ve never elected anyone like Donald Trump. He doesn’t talk like a politician. He didn’t run a campaign like a politician. And all of the reasons why he was an untraditional candidate add up to the reasons why he won,” Rothenberg says.
On election night, as the numbers were being reported Rothenberg says it felt like something big was happening and the way the numbers were coming in suggested a surprise.
The results demonstrate the close but great divide in the U.S.
“Trump won electoral college. Clinton won the popular vote,” Rothenberg explains. “Clinton got one million fewer votes than Obama in 2012. Trump got 1.5 million more than Romney. There were close votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan.”
As he explains, Trump got the important chunk of votes in the right states.
“Americans said, I’m ready to roll the dice,” Rothenberg says. “As trump asked, ‘What do you have to lose?’”
According to polls, Trump’s favorable rating ranges from 44% to 48% as he’s entering the White House.
“It’s all about the deal with Trump. He’s said we are going to win. But others have a different idea of what winning is,” Rothenberg says.
So far, his cabinet so far is a combination of outsiders and insiders.
“The big question is how much will Trump call the shots, and how much influence will the cabinet have,” he says. “It’s possible we’ll have fewer restrictions, lower taxes and big growth opportunities. But it’s a president without political experience. And foreign policy is a big question mark.”
In conclusion, he said, normally a president will get 2 to 3 big things through. And advised the group to keep your ears and eyes open.