News

The Transition to La Nina Could be Speeding Up


The state of the current El Niño Southern Oscillation is a hot topic among climate predictors. According to the latest ENSO model predictions, El Niño could show “rapid decay” this spring.

According to Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist for MDA Weather Services, El Niñ could shift to moderate intensity by early spring and weak intensity by late spring. After that, there’s a notable shift towards a fast transition to La Niña, he says.

“There is still a large spread in the model solutions for the summer and fall months,” Tapley says. “While the vast majority of models show at least negative/neutral ENSO conditions developing by mid- to late-summer, several now show full-fledged La Niña conditions by the summer.”

NOAA says the overall chance of a La Nina event increases to 40% in Aug.-Oct. 2016. This could be significant because La Niña tends to bring “less favorable” growing conditions across North America during summer months – i.e. hotter, drier weather.

“The most significant impact of La Nina on agricultural commodities is in the grain sector,” according to a recent Commodity Compass report from three analysts at Societe Generale, including agriculture analyst Christopher Narayanan. “Dry weather conditions in the U.S. can threaten the development of corn, soybeans and wheat crops, and dry conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil can impact corn and soybeans.”

According to the Climate Prediction Center, a La Niña episode is only classified as such after the Oceanic Niño Index shows a -0.5˚C or more departure from normal for three consecutive months.

For Feb.-Apr. 2016, NOAA says precipitation odds are for a wetter-than-average Great Plains, Southwest and West, and a dryer-than-average Pacific Northwest and eastern Corn Belt. Expected temperatures during this time includes hotter-than-normal weather across the northern half of the United States, plus cooler-than-normal weather along the Gulf Coast into Texas and New Mexico.

Source: Ben Potter, AgWeb.com

ProAg Quick Links

Agent Toolbox Grower Toolbox Careers

ProAg News

Eight Questions About the Dairy Margin Coverage Program

Many dairy producers are hopeful that the Dairy Margin Coverage program through the 2018 Farm Bill will provide a better safety net. However, the government shutdown created some confusion about the program and its implementation....

U.S., China Trade Talks in Washington this Week

After continuing last week in Beijing, U.S., China trade talks will resume again this week in Washington, D.C. as recent news items continue to highlight impacts of the ongoing trade dispute on the farm economy. ...
Get ProAg updates via email
Your browser is out-of-date!

Update your browser to view this website correctly. Update my browser now

×