WASDE: Corn and Wheat Stocks Up, Beans Lower04/13/2016
U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected higher with increases for corn, barley, and oats based on indicated disappearance as reported in the March 31 Grain Stocks and adjustments to seed use based on intended acreage from Prospective Plantings. Corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower reflecting indicated disappearance through the first half of the marketing year. Corn use in ethanol production is projected 25 million bushels higher on a stronger-than-expected pace of weekly ethanol production through March as reported by the Energy Information Administration. Projected corn ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels. The projected season-average farm price for corn is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $3.55 per bushel, with the range lowered 10 cents on the high end.
Offsetting usage changes are made for 2015/16 U.S. sorghum this month. Projected feed and residual use is lowered 15 million bushels based on the March 1 stocks. Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is projected 25 million bushels higher based on robust use of sorghum to make ethanol during February as indicated in the latest Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. Projected exports are lowered 10 million bushels as sales have declined sharply in recent weeks. The sorghum farm price range is projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint to $3.20 per bushel as discounts to corn remain large in the latest data.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2015/16 are projected 0.3 million tons higher with a number of mostly offsetting changes.
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2015/16 include higher exports, lower seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are increased 15 million bushels to 1,705 million reflecting stronger global soybean imports led by China and several other countries including Iran, Bangladesh, and Mexico. Seed use is reduced slightly in line with plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 445 million bushels, down 15 million from last month. Soybean crush and balance sheets for soybean meal and oil are unchanged.
Forecast price ranges for soybeans and products are narrowed this month with midpoints all unchanged.
Global oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 527.0 million tons, marginally higher than last month, with small, mostly offsetting changes in foreign production.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected 10 million bushels higher on reduced feed and residual use. At 976 million bushels, these would be the largest ending stocks since 1987. The reduced feed and residual use reflects lower disappearance during the December-February and September-November quarters as indicated by March 1 stocks and revised December 1 stocks, both from the March 31 Grain Stocks report. The projected season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 on the high end to $4.90 to $5.00.
Global 2015/16 wheat supplies are raised 1.0 million tons primarily on increased production, which is a record 733.1 million tons.