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Wheat Down After USDA Forecasts Biggest Stocks in History


Chicago wheat futures fell again on Wednesday, remaining near their lowest level since 2010 hit on Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said the largest world wheat inventories in history are being piled up.

Corn was again weak after dropping in the previous session after the USDA forecast hefty U.S. supplies. Soybeans were firm on bargain buying.

“Wheat, corn and soybeans are still burdened by the forecasts of large global supplies made by the USDA monthly report on Tuesday,” said Frank Rijkers, agrifood economist at ABN AMRO Bank. “But markets have been moving in and out of positive territory today because of the impact of re-positioning after the USDA report and bargain-hunting following yesterday’s price falls.”

The Chicago Board of Trade most-active wheat contract fell 0.1 percent to $4.56-3/4 a bushel by 1049 GMT after dropping to $4.55 a bushel on Tuesday, the lowest since 2010.

Most active soybeans rose a 0.09 percent to $8.64 a bushel. Corn was down 0.2 percent at $3.60 a bushel, having ended down 0.3 percent in the previous session when prices hit a low of $3.59-1/4, the weakest since Jan. 15.

The USDA on Tuesday raised its forecast of 2015/16 world wheat season ending stocks to 238.87 million tonnes, above trade estimates. The figure would be the largest in history if realized.

“There is a global picture of large wheat supplies facing little demand,” Rijkers said. “But some attention in the wheat market is now turning towards the northern hemisphere sowing season soon to gather speed in coming weeks.”

The USDA also raised its estimate of U.S. corn season ending stocks to 1.837 billion bushels, the most in a decade and above the average analyst estimate of 1.809 billion.

The USDA increased its forecast of U.S. 2015/16 soybean ending stocks to 450 million bushels, up from 440 million in January. The figure was above an average of trade estimates for 445 million.

“Corn is being weakened by the outlook for good harvests, with crop recent weather positive in South America,” Rijkers said. “There is also some concern that the U.S. weekly figures on ethanol production due later today could show a dip in production.”

“Soybeans are facing headwinds from the prospects of large global supplies, but are not much changed from yesterday, with some bargain-buying supporting.”

Source: Ag Professional 

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